← Primeira Liga 2009-10 · Sun, Mar 28, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leiria win | 41% | 37% | 2.30 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 34% | 3.10 | value: +7% |
| Pacos Ferreira win | 28% | 29% | 3.30 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leiria | Pacos Ferreira |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 635.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1448.55 | 1521.72 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.25 | 24.68 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| league points | 30.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 15.96 | 12.96 |
| season ppg | 1.30 | 1.39 |
| state index | -0.32 | 0.35 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |