← Primeira Liga 2009-10 · Sun, Mar 28, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 68% | 65% | 1.36 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 20% | 4.50 | fair |
| Belenenses win | 11% | 15% | 9.00 | value: +34% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Belenenses | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 1731.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1382.90 | 1784.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.25 | -22.47 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.76 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| league points | 14.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 13.96 | 14.96 |
| season ppg | 0.61 | 2.04 |
| state index | -0.78 | 0.95 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.40 |