← Primeira Liga 2009-10 · Sat, Mar 27, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitória SC win | 52% | 53% | 1.83 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.40 | fair |
| Academica win | 21% | 20% | 4.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitória SC | Academica |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1568.55 | 1512.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 24.45 | -8.94 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| league points | 33.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 14.00 |
| season ppg | 1.43 | 1.04 |
| state index | 0.61 | -0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |