← Primeira Liga 2009-10 · Sat, Mar 27, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 57% | 43% | 1.62 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 35% | 3.60 | value: +27% |
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 17% | 21% | 6.00 | value: +28% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sport Lisboa e Benfica | Sporting Clube de Braga |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 269.00 | 146.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1763.72 | 1686.56 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.92 | -4.19 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.45 |
| league points | 58.00 | 55.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 12.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 14.00 |
| season ppg | 2.52 | 2.39 |
| state index | 1.54 | 0.72 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.00 |