← Primeira Liga 2009-10 · Fri, Mar 26, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Portugal win | 47% | 51% | 2.05 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 28% | 23% | 3.25 | fair |
| Maritimo win | 25% | 26% | 3.75 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Maritimo | Sporting Clube de Portugal |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1524.72 | 1734.44 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -26.48 | 27.85 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| league points | 27.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 11.00 | 12.00 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 1.65 |
| state index | -0.50 | 1.41 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |