← Primeira Liga 2009-10 · Mon, Mar 15, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pacos Ferreira win | 41% | 45% | 2.25 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 31% | 3.10 | fair |
| Maritimo win | 28% | 24% | 3.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Pacos Ferreira | Maritimo |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 622.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1513.81 | 1499.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 29.53 | -11.32 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| league points | 29.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.32 | 1.23 |
| state index | 0.38 | -0.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |