← Primeira Liga 2009-10 · Sun, Mar 14, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Portugal win | 59% | 61% | 1.57 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 22% | 3.75 | fair |
| Vitória SC win | 15% | 17% | 6.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sporting Clube de Portugal | Vitória SC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1727.61 | 1575.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.38 | 18.44 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| league points | 35.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.59 | 1.50 |
| state index | 1.13 | 0.67 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |