← Primeira Liga 2009-10 · Sun, Mar 14, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leixoes win | 42% | 50% | 2.20 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 30% | 27% | 3.10 | fair |
| Setubal win | 27% | 23% | 3.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leixoes | Setubal |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1418.14 | 1387.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -30.16 | -2.92 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| league points | 15.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 0.68 | 0.77 |
| state index | -1.20 | -1.05 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |