← Primeira Liga 2009-10 · Sat, Mar 13, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 55% | 53% | 1.67 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 30% | 3.50 | value: +4% |
| Academica win | 18% | 17% | 5.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Academica | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 1716.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1516.36 | 1818.33 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.69 | -25.02 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.76 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| league points | 24.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.09 | 2.00 |
| state index | 0.06 | 0.95 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |