← Primeira Liga 2009-10 · Fri, Mar 12, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Naval win | 39% | 47% | 2.40 | value: +13% |
| Draw | 31% | 29% | 3.00 | fair |
| Leiria win | 30% | 23% | 3.20 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Naval | Leiria |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1426.94 | 1457.71 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 24.65 | -17.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.10 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| league points | 26.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.18 | 1.36 |
| state index | -0.11 | -0.45 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |