← Primeira Liga 2009-10 · Mon, Mar 8, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitória SC win | 47% | 53% | 1.95 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 29% | 23% | 3.10 | fair |
| CD Nacional win | 24% | 24% | 3.90 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitória SC | CD Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 66.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1528.32 | 1546.95 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.54 | -20.85 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.57 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| league points | 30.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.43 | 1.38 |
| state index | 0.05 | -0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |