← Primeira Liga 2009-10 · Sun, Mar 7, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maritimo win | 45% | 52% | 2.05 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 29% | 24% | 3.10 | fair |
| Academica win | 26% | 24% | 3.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Maritimo | Academica |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1502.25 | 1482.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.46 | 1.21 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| league points | 26.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.24 | 1.10 |
| state index | -0.26 | -0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |