← Primeira Liga 2009-10 · Sun, Mar 7, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 74% | 75% | 1.25 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 20% | 5.25 | value: +4% |
| Pacos Ferreira win | 8% | 5% | 12.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sport Lisboa e Benfica | Pacos Ferreira |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 249.00 | 614.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1753.49 | 1518.45 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.33 | 42.61 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.30 |
| league points | 52.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 2.48 | 1.38 |
| state index | 1.60 | 0.56 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.60 |