← Primeira Liga 2009-10 · Fri, Mar 5, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leiria win | 53% | 55% | 1.75 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.40 | fair |
| Leixoes win | 19% | 18% | 5.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leiria | Leixoes |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1450.09 | 1425.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.90 | -33.06 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| league points | 27.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 0.71 |
| state index | -0.55 | -1.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |