← Primeira Liga 2009-10 · Sun, Feb 28, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pacos Ferreira win | 50% | 56% | 1.85 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 29% | 26% | 3.40 | fair |
| Setubal win | 21% | 18% | 4.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Pacos Ferreira | Setubal |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 607.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1510.63 | 1389.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 42.92 | 3.76 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| league points | 26.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.30 | 0.80 |
| state index | 0.43 | -0.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |