← Primeira Liga 2009-10 · Sat, Feb 27, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 67% | 64% | 1.40 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 21% | 4.50 | fair |
| Leixoes win | 11% | 15% | 9.00 | value: +32% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leixoes | Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 241.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1432.83 | 1746.42 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.66 | 15.72 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.60 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.50 |
| league points | 15.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 14.00 |
| season ppg | 0.75 | 2.45 |
| state index | -0.77 | 1.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |