← Primeira Liga 2009-10 · Fri, Feb 26, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leiria win | 36% | 35% | 2.60 | fair |
| Vitória SC win | 33% | 30% | 2.90 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 35% | 3.00 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leiria | Vitória SC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1460.15 | 1518.27 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.20 | -14.87 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| league points | 27.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 12.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.35 | 1.35 |
| state index | -0.14 | -0.04 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |