← Primeira Liga 2009-10 · Mon, Feb 22, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Academica win | 36% | 36% | 2.60 | fair |
| Belenenses win | 33% | 35% | 3.00 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 31% | 29% | 3.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Belenenses | Academica |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1381.03 | 1486.89 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -35.09 | 4.92 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.08 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| league points | 11.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 17.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 0.58 | 1.05 |
| state index | -1.78 | -0.16 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |