← Primeira Liga 2009-10 · Sun, Feb 21, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Setubal win | 41% | 42% | 2.30 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 32% | 3.10 | fair |
| Naval win | 28% | 26% | 3.30 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Setubal | Naval |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1401.17 | 1401.43 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.07 | -8.92 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 0.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| league points | 16.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 0.84 | 1.00 |
| state index | -0.52 | -0.84 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |