← Primeira Liga 2009-10 · Sat, Feb 20, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Portugal win | 50% | 52% | 1.90 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 30% | 3.40 | fair |
| Olhanense win | 22% | 18% | 4.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Olhanense | Sporting Clube de Portugal |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1476.07 | 1703.31 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.07 | -20.75 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.20 |
| league points | 18.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 0.95 | 1.47 |
| state index | -0.05 | 0.47 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |