← Primeira Liga 2009-10 · Mon, Feb 15, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitória SC win | 36% | 44% | 2.60 | value: +16% |
| Naval win | 33% | 32% | 3.00 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 24% | 3.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Naval | Vitória SC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1400.01 | 1509.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.99 | -4.41 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.52 | 0.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.10 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| league points | 18.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.28 |
| state index | -0.55 | -0.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |