← Primeira Liga 2009-10 · Sun, Feb 14, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 61% | 75% | 1.53 | value: +15% |
| Draw | 25% | 17% | 3.80 | fair |
| Maritimo win | 14% | 8% | 6.90 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sporting Clube de Braga | Maritimo |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 105.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1690.76 | 1518.50 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 41.51 | -18.53 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.30 |
| league points | 45.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 2.50 | 1.39 |
| state index | 1.43 | -0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |