← Primeira Liga 2009-10 · Sun, Feb 14, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leiria win | 55% | 62% | 1.70 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 26% | 23% | 3.60 | fair |
| Setubal win | 18% | 15% | 5.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 3 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leiria | Setubal |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1494.61 | 1429.98 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.65 | 27.85 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| league points | 26.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.37 | 0.83 |
| state index | 0.05 | -0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |