← Primeira Liga 2009-10 · Sat, Feb 13, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 64% | 66% | 1.45 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 21% | 4.33 | fair |
| Leixoes win | 13% | 14% | 7.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leixoes | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 1688.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1435.48 | 1807.04 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.54 | -4.83 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.55 |
| league points | 14.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 15.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 0.78 | 2.17 |
| state index | -0.54 | 1.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |