← Primeira Liga 2009-10 · Sat, Feb 13, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 80% | 82% | 1.17 | fair |
| Draw | 14% | 14% | 6.50 | fair |
| Belenenses win | 6% | 3% | 17.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sport Lisboa e Benfica | Belenenses |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 227.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1780.78 | 1415.06 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.43 | -41.55 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.60 | 0.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.00 |
| league points | 46.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 16.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 2.42 | 0.61 |
| state index | 1.72 | -1.68 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.60 |