← Primeira Liga 2009-10 · Mon, Feb 8, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 57% | 71% | 1.61 | value: +14% |
| Draw | 26% | 17% | 3.50 | fair |
| Belenenses win | 17% | 12% | 5.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Belenenses | Sporting Clube de Braga |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 99.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1388.78 | 1684.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -44.90 | 28.27 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| league points | 11.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 15.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| season ppg | 0.65 | 2.47 |
| state index | -1.67 | 1.13 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |