← Primeira Liga 2009-10 · Sun, Feb 7, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 76% | 82% | 1.22 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 14% | 6.00 | fair |
| Naval win | 8% | 4% | 11.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Porto | Naval |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1682.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1804.76 | 1402.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.50 | -5.61 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 0.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| league points | 36.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 2.12 | 1.06 |
| state index | 1.41 | -0.62 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.40 |