← Primeira Liga 2009-10 · Sun, Feb 7, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olhanense win | 35% | 29% | 2.63 | fair |
| CD Nacional win | 34% | 39% | 2.70 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 30% | 31% | 3.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Olhanense | CD Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 37.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1447.99 | 1557.41 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.14 | -31.16 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.42 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.35 |
| league points | 14.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 0.82 | 1.41 |
| state index | -0.29 | -0.38 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |