← Primeira Liga 2009-10 · Sat, Feb 6, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Portugal win | 65% | 69% | 1.45 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 23% | 4.33 | fair |
| Academica win | 12% | 8% | 8.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sporting Clube de Portugal | Academica |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1686.51 | 1472.85 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.40 | -3.37 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| league points | 27.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.59 | 0.94 |
| state index | 0.58 | -0.42 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |