← Primeira Liga 2009-10 · Mon, Feb 1, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leixoes win | 37% | 37% | 2.60 | fair |
| Maritimo win | 32% | 36% | 3.00 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 31% | 27% | 3.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leixoes | Maritimo |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1458.83 | 1500.79 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.06 | -39.75 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 1.75 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| league points | 14.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 13.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 15.00 | 15.00 |
| season ppg | 0.88 | 1.19 |
| state index | -0.08 | -0.65 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |