← Primeira Liga 2009-10 · Sun, Jan 31, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Setubal win | 37% | 46% | 2.55 | value: +18% |
| Rio Ave FC win | 32% | 25% | 3.00 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 29% | 3.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Setubal | Rio Ave FC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1391.06 | 1438.54 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.77 | -17.97 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| league points | 13.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 15.00 | 14.00 |
| season ppg | 0.81 | 1.19 |
| state index | -0.48 | -0.58 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |