← Primeira Liga 2009-10 · Sat, Jan 30, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Naval win | 42% | 43% | 2.25 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 37% | 3.00 | value: +10% |
| Belenenses win | 27% | 20% | 3.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Naval | Belenenses |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1393.91 | 1397.16 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.58 | -34.11 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.00 |
| league points | 15.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 14.00 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 13.00 |
| season ppg | 0.94 | 0.69 |
| state index | -0.62 | -1.46 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |