← Primeira Liga 2009-10 · Sat, Jan 30, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 50% | 49% | 1.85 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 31% | 3.40 | value: +4% |
| CD Nacional win | 21% | 21% | 4.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Nacional | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 29.00 | 1674.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1567.80 | 1794.37 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.37 | -8.57 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 1.37 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.50 |
| league points | 24.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 2.06 |
| state index | 0.22 | 1.06 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |