← Primeira Liga 2009-10 · Sat, Jan 30, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leiria win | 48% | 49% | 1.95 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 30% | 3.30 | fair |
| Olhanense win | 23% | 21% | 4.20 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leiria | Olhanense |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | — |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | — |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1494.61 | 1472.58 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 34.82 | 4.92 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | — |
| league points | 23.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 14.00 |
| season ppg | 1.44 | 0.88 |
| state index | 0.34 | -0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |