← Primeira Liga 2009-10 · Sat, Jan 30, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 71% | 81% | 1.33 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 20% | 12% | 4.75 | fair |
| Vitória SC win | 10% | 7% | 10.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sport Lisboa e Benfica | Vitória SC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 213.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1742.16 | 1527.79 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 27.65 | 15.84 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.11 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.15 |
| league points | 39.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 14.00 |
| season ppg | 2.44 | 1.44 |
| state index | 1.67 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.80 |