← Primeira Liga 2008-09 · Sun, May 24, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 62% | 68% | 1.50 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 21% | 3.90 | fair |
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 14% | 11% | 6.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Porto | Sporting Clube de Braga |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1423.00 | 327.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1827.07 | 1589.43 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 24.84 | 2.14 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.27 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.90 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.25 |
| league points | 69.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 2.38 | 1.69 |
| state index | 1.91 | 0.49 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |