← Primeira Liga 2008-09 · Sat, May 23, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trofense win | 38% | 34% | 2.40 | fair |
| Pacos Ferreira win | 35% | 35% | 2.70 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 31% | 3.40 | value: +5% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Pacos Ferreira | Trofense |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 326.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1467.25 | 1434.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.95 | -2.99 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| league points | 31.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.07 | 0.79 |
| state index | 0.04 | -0.69 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.40 |