← Primeira Liga 2008-09 · Sat, May 23, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Setubal win | 39% | 31% | 2.38 | fair |
| Naval win | 33% | 35% | 3.00 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 28% | 34% | 3.25 | value: +11% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Naval | Setubal |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1403.93 | 1415.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.38 | -15.05 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| league points | 28.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.97 | 0.86 |
| state index | -0.87 | -0.91 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |