← Primeira Liga 2008-09 · Sat, May 23, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leixoes win | 41% | 44% | 2.30 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 28% | 3.20 | fair |
| Maritimo win | 29% | 28% | 3.25 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leixoes | Maritimo |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1480.96 | 1521.65 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.83 | -34.34 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| league points | 42.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.45 | 1.28 |
| state index | -0.44 | -0.93 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |