← Primeira Liga 2008-09 · Sat, May 23, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 53% | 64% | 1.80 | value: +15% |
| Draw | 26% | 19% | 3.60 | fair |
| Belenenses win | 21% | 17% | 4.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sport Lisboa e Benfica | Belenenses |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 326.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1675.38 | 1447.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.82 | -23.25 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.10 |
| league points | 56.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.93 | 0.83 |
| state index | 0.80 | -0.77 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |