← Primeira Liga 2008-09 · Sun, May 17, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 36% | 44% | 2.50 | value: +11% |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 34% | 26% | 2.75 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.10 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sporting Clube de Braga | Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 320.00 | 320.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1604.63 | 1660.18 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.61 | -25.93 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.55 |
| league points | 49.00 | 53.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.75 | 1.89 |
| state index | 0.71 | 0.39 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |