← Primeira Liga 2008-09 · Sun, May 17, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Nacional win | 57% | 59% | 1.62 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 24% | 3.40 | fair |
| Pacos Ferreira win | 17% | 17% | 5.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Nacional | Pacos Ferreira |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 320.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1582.62 | 1472.72 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 31.37 | 18.05 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.27 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| league points | 49.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.75 | 1.11 |
| state index | 0.67 | -0.05 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |