← Primeira Liga 2008-09 · Sat, May 16, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 53% | 59% | 1.73 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.40 | fair |
| Trofense win | 21% | 13% | 4.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Trofense | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 1415.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1439.37 | 1822.35 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.98 | 23.57 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 2.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.45 |
| league points | 23.00 | 66.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 0.82 | 2.36 |
| state index | -0.45 | 1.95 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.00 |