← Primeira Liga 2008-09 · Sat, May 16, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Setubal win | 52% | 50% | 1.80 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 26% | 3.20 | fair |
| Leixoes win | 20% | 24% | 4.50 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Setubal | Leixoes |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1425.82 | 1470.52 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.21 | -27.13 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| league points | 25.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 0.89 | 1.39 |
| state index | -0.61 | -0.73 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |