← Primeira Liga 2008-09 · Mon, May 11, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 38% | 35% | 2.40 | fair |
| Belenenses win | 34% | 31% | 2.75 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 34% | 3.20 | value: +8% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Belenenses | Sporting Clube de Braga |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 314.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1455.97 | 1588.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.74 | 13.09 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| league points | 21.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 12.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| season ppg | 0.78 | 1.70 |
| state index | -0.57 | 0.56 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |