← Primeira Liga 2008-09 · Sun, May 10, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 66% | 72% | 1.36 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 16% | 4.20 | fair |
| CD Nacional win | 12% | 12% | 8.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Porto | CD Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1409.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1819.23 | 1585.74 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 28.09 | 47.43 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.08 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.90 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.40 |
| league points | 63.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 2.33 | 1.81 |
| state index | 1.94 | 0.94 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |