← Primeira Liga 2008-09 · Sun, May 10, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Naval win | 44% | 50% | 2.20 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | 3.10 | fair |
| Est Amadora win | 27% | 23% | 3.55 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Naval | Est Amadora |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1413.33 | 1458.94 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.70 | -21.07 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| league points | 27.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.11 |
| state index | -0.74 | -0.67 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |