← Primeira Liga 2008-09 · Sat, May 9, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Portugal win | 75% | 79% | 1.20 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 13% | 5.50 | fair |
| Setubal win | 8% | 8% | 12.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sporting Clube de Portugal | Setubal |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1709.82 | 1428.28 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.40 | -24.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| league points | 57.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 2.11 | 0.93 |
| state index | 1.21 | -0.91 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.60 |