← Primeira Liga 2008-09 · Sat, May 9, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 76% | 75% | 1.22 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 19% | 5.50 | value: +4% |
| Trofense win | 8% | 7% | 12.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sport Lisboa e Benfica | Trofense |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 312.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1706.20 | 1451.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.07 | -6.94 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.15 |
| league points | 52.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 1.93 | 0.81 |
| state index | 0.74 | -0.43 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |