← Primeira Liga 2008-09 · Fri, May 8, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitória SC win | 45% | 59% | 2.15 | value: +26% |
| Draw | 29% | 23% | 3.20 | fair |
| Rio Ave FC win | 26% | 18% | 3.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitória SC | Rio Ave FC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1535.46 | 1395.02 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.17 | 9.23 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| league points | 35.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.30 | 0.89 |
| state index | -0.08 | -0.61 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |